The 2015 Australian macadamia crop is on track to hit 47,000 tonnes in-shell @ 10% moisture (43,800 tonnes in-shell @ 3.5% moisture) announced the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) in its latest update forecast.
“We’ve had relatively favourable weather conditions throughout the early part of the season across all growing regions, and early harvest conditions have been good,” said AMS Chief Executive Officer Jolyon Burnett.
Mr. Burnett added that recently harvesting in the Northern Rivers region had been delayed slightly following heavy rainfall in May, and the harvest season was expected to extend late into 2015 in this region.
“Overall, early crack-outs indicate good kernel quality. Available kernel is expected to be around 10,400 tonnes, with 25-30% of the crop being sold as in-shell,” said Mr Burnett.
Mr. Burnett said there is still very strong global demand across the board for both kernel and in-shell.
“The Australian macadamia industry is striving to achieve a good balance between supplying kernel markets and meeting demand for in-shell,” he said.
The industry forecast is provided from modelling developed by the AMS and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development & Innovation. Historically, this model has provided forecasts with better than +/- 8% accuracy.
Extreme weather events over recent years have proved difficult to predict and the AMS has added historical data provided by the Australian Macadamia Handlers (AMHA) to assist in the forecasting. The AMHA represent over 90% of all macadamia handlers.
This crop estimate update is based on actual receivals (until end of May 2015) by participating handlers. Approximately 50% per cent of the crop is still to be delivered.
A further report will be provided in September 2015 and the final figure for the 2015 crop will be announced by the AMS in late November 2015.
First published in Leading Agriculture issue 10